Tamil Nadu election around the corner in May 2011. Except in 1989, political alliance played a critical role in deciding the winner for past three decades. This time will be no different. DMK is spending lot of money on welfare programmes. In my view those were not welfare programmes instead freebies for luring the vote. Opposition is taking the corruption in their hand particularly 2G spectrum scam.
In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK and DMK are the two major parties. Each is having about 30% vote. One of the two party can pull about 5% more (about 35%) based on various factors. I believe anti incumbency and 2G spectrum scam will be advantage to AIADMK this time around. Last assembly election, free Television set tilted that advantage to DMK. I would not discount DMK yet as four months to election and trend could change. It is clear that, these two parties will be leading their respective alliance.
AIADMK already brought in CPI, CPI-M, MDMK and other small parties in their alliance. DMK currently has Congress and VC and I expect them to stay.
DMDK and Congress are two other major parties has some significance throught the state. DMDK already made stance against DMK. With this backdrop DMDK can join AIADMK camp or form a third front. Forming a third front will be sucidal unless it brings Congress onboard. Even with that, they cannot win the majority but can play spoiler role in splitting anti-DMK vote. Based on Vijay Kanth speech, this is unlikely. This will also discredit him in the future. He is likely to join AIADMK alliance and may be trying get maximum seats from them. My sources are confirming this.
Congress did not contest election (except in 1989) on their own in past three decades. During this period, its cadre base is eroding. It is party of more leaders and may have relatively stronger presence in southern districts. If they go alone or put together its own alliance, it may be a repeat of Bihar in 2010. Considering DMK strength in paraliment, it is unlikely to break away from DMK. DMK support is more important in the backdrop of Andhra Pradesh crisis. Their were indications from local congress leaders that there may be breakaway from Congress to support AIADMK like 1996. I do not beieve that will happen. I do not expect smooth relation between their party cadres at local level though. Congress and DMK need each other in post election whether they win or not. Having said that, Congress will use its 2G scam to get more seats and cabinet positions if they win.
PMK is another force which could poll about 3% vote in northern Tamil Nadu. They were loosing their base because of frequent switching of side. They lost all the seats they contested in 2009 election. Karunanidhi said, they signalled PMK to join DMK. In return Ramadoss, PMK leader said he did not receive any signal. As per sources, they are keeping the channel open from both sides. It will be difficult to predict where they will be at the end. My gut feeling is, they will be with DMK or left out (which I prefer to teach them a lesson).
As expected, DMDK joins AIADMK alliance and barrning any unforseen event, I beieve they will win 150-170 seats. DMK alliance can win 40-60 seats. DMK alliance expected to project "Election Manifesto" as their hero and spend lot of money. DMK government started pushing their welfare programmes beyond the needy people to get the votes. We need to see whether it can be converted to vote at the end. Inspite of all this, there is anti-incumbency trend but can change as we near the election.
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