DMK 2011 election Manifesto - discussion

The ICC world cup which was taking limelight for past month ended with Team India winning the world cup. The TN assembly elections which were at back burner for past week or so came back to lime light. Both DMK and AIADMK manifesto filled with freebies. I am not a believer and supporter of freebies. I view this as bribe to get votes. I would prefer to vote based on Good Governance and future wellness of the state in mind. We will review the DMK manifesto in this post.

DMK Manifesto is 66 pages in length. The pages 42-45 provides the highlights of their policies. The first 10 pages provides the back ground of DMK and other regular propaganda. The pages 46 through 66 is past achievements and Annexures. I focused on the highlights and referred to the appropriate pages for additional information.

Loans to women self groups: The loan amount to this group will be increased to 4 lakhs from  2.5 lakhs out of which 2 lakhs will be subsidy. Political parties figured out they can leverage these women in election time and secure their votes. . This will be 5000-10000 per women. This is socializing the corruption

Low rental housing scheme This another bad policy without addressing the fundamental problem. The real estate boom makes housing unaffordable. This growth is not sustainable. The Housing Board was created to address this problem and we need to see where we went wrong and correct it rather than creating a new problem.

One kilo of iodized salt every month through PDS: I am shocked to see this. Is this acceptance by government that inflation is so high and salt is not affordable? I am not a big fan of freebies and it is a bad policy.

Maternity leave will be increased from 3 months to 4 months:  I am not sure whether it is applicable to all employees or only for who work in Government. I think we should stay with 3 months and provide up to one year non-paid leave if the women choose to. This can be applied to every one working in Tamil Nadu.

 Free bus pass for senior citizens:   Government transport corporations are running in losses. The estimated loss is over 1000 crores and it is struggling to perform maintenance and buy diesel. This is going to add stress to the system. Rather public will be happy to pay for good service at reasonable price. I am positive this free pass will be limited to specific services by tricking people. Another Election gimmick?

Increase the income of people who are below poverty line to above poverty line: This is false promise in the back drop of freebies. Given the policy of the DMK government, this is absurd. The only way they can achieve this with current policy is distribution of DMK leaders wealth to the people who are below the poverty level.

Waive non-farm loans and their interest in stages : This is another bad policy. This will create a culture where people don't want to pay back the loans hoping that Government will come to their rescue. This also penalizes the good citizens who pay the loan back on time. This should be used only in extraordinary situation and it became common thing which is dangerous policy.

Extend the free electricty to coconut farm and horticulture crop: Framers will be happy to pay if they get the uninterrupted service and service for new request is processed in timely manner without expecting bribe.  This is one another bad policy.

Conversion of agricultural land to other purposes will be prevented without permission: We have enough laws to stop them. Inspite of it, this happens due to corruption and political influence. Adding new rule will facilitate corruption further. Is there any hidden agenda behind it as MK family accumulated so much land?

Continuously strive to alleviate Eelam problem:  DMK government already watched one of worst genocide happening in eelam. They haven't done anything to stop except writing letters and sending telegrams in spite of being part of the Central Government. This is nothing more than political statement.

Find a solution to stop atrocious usury (Kandhu vatti): The ADMK government passed the strong laws to stop this. There is no need for new law. It is matter of administering law and order. Also educating the public.

Kalaignar Housing Family Scheme subsidy increased: The subsidy of housing scheme will be increased from Rs 75000 to one lakh. Government could have achieved the similar things through TNHB (Tamil Nadu Hosuing Board) with some subsidy and loans. The current system forces people to come up with the balance money which will be difficult. Officials and DMK functionaries are milking the innocent poor to deliver the benefit which could have been avoided through TNHB by defining proper rules and eligibility criteria.

35 kilos of rise for poorest of poor: In the past five years we have seen smuggling of the rise to neighboring states and sold it in black market. It is failed policy and should not be extended. This will help smugglers and politicians.

Free Grinder or Mixer: This is hang over from last election. Free color TV promise during the last election put them into power. So DMK wanted to buy vote for Grinder or Mixer. ADMK also promised similar things to counter DMK. The bottom line is it's a bad policy and this money should be used for infrastructure & growth.

Benefit increase to the schemes:  The DMK promised to increase the old people pension, financial assistance to pregnant women and marriage assistance. These are the couple of things which make sense given the status of women in the society particularly in lower end of economic scale.

Conclusion: I read through the complete manifesto couple of times in search of any growth related policy. None is found. The promises in the manifesto are intended to create popularity and get back to power using cash/benefit for vote. Absolutely no policy towards growth of the state or uplifting of the common people. This will make sure all the revenue will be spent on the freebies and reckless policies. It will ensure Government will borrow money for each and every growth related project putting undue stress on treasury. We can assured that the TN debt will cross 2 Lakh crore in next five years and state will be in the brink of bankruptcy.

AIADMK List and associated mishap

On Wednesday,  160 AIADMK candidates list was unilateraly released. The list was released even before the seat identification process is complete with its partners. Shockingly many of the constituencies figured in the AIADMK list were in the wish list by their partners. Some of them had their sitting MLAs. Even AIADMK candidates were allocated different constituencies than they requested.

For example, Gokul Indira was assigned Anna Nagar while she requested Thirupattur. The list also figured P.Valarmathi who is not in good books of AIADMK supremo in recent past. Dissolved Sasikala Peravai founder, P.Needhipathi got Usilampatti (As of Friday night, this seat was allotted to its partner AIMMK. a devar outfit.)

This alliance was put together by AIADMK supremo painfully over one year period. Some element within her residence/office attempted destroy everything in one press release. She is not stupid to release the complete list without finalizing with partners. If it was done for the auspicious day reason, she would have released few prominent names but not the complete list. I do believe this is happened without her approval.  There are several theories going around why and who did this. The bottom line is she should find out the group/individual and take action on them. Otherwise more trouble on the way.

On Friday, she called the leaders of AIADMK front over phone and spoke to them. This pacified them and seat identification process continued and in some cases it was finalized. After the identification is complete we can expect some change in the AIADMK final list. Hopefully the deserving candidates will get the nomination. This may mean the nomination goes to different individual than the one in the first list. She has ability to make this change and our hope is she does.

In 1990, her resignation was released (handed over to police and they released) by someone from her residence. As a follow up, Sasikala's husband was kicked out of her residence later citing him as reason. I hope some one pays the price for this mischievous behavior.

Tamil Nadu Election landscape

The long expected Jayalalitha-Vijaykanth meeting happened today (March 4th, 2011). At last DMDK decided to join AIADMK front and they got 41 seats in return. Now AIADMK needs to finalize the seat sharing with other partners like MDMK, CPI, CPIM.

On DMK side, Congress is giving enough heart burns to DMK. After three rounds of talks, no deal yet. Congress is trying to gain maximum out of 2G scam. On the DMK side, they are pressuring Congress by allocating to other partners such as PMK, VCK and others. There are whispers that partners may give up few seats in case there is a need. I still believe DMK will settle with Congress and go as single front. Both parties aware of this, particularly after AIADMK-DMDK confirmation.

In the past when a front which polls around 45% of votes returns to power with majority on its own. This elections is not going to be different. Based on the previous elections in 2006 and 2009, the ADMK front should poll closer to 48-52% range. In case of ADMK front crossing 50% threshold is going to be advantage to them.  The 2G scam should be an advantage to ADMK front as well. In this secnario AIADMK should win over 180 seats.

AIADMK - 33%
DMDK -    10%
CPI       -    1.5%
CPI(M) -    1.5%
MDMK -    3%
Others  -      2%
_______________________
Total - 51%

DMK    - 26.5%
Congrss - 8.5%
PMK -     5%
VCK  -    1.5%
Others -   1%
___________________
Total - 42.5%

BJP- 2%
Independents - 3%
Others - 1.5%

The wild card is money and power during the election. As one of my fellow Twittery pointed out, I could not imagine the consequence of DMK-PMK-VCK cadres occupying the polling booth in Northern districts. It is going to be challenge for Election Commission to conduct fair election.

Gap between DMK and Congress is widening and it will show up in the election as well. This is the status as on today and more than a month before election. There are bumpy raids ahead. BUCKLE UP !!!!!

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election - Alliance in Making

Tamil Nadu election around the corner in May 2011. Except in 1989, political alliance played a critical role in deciding the winner for past three decades. This time will be no different. DMK is spending lot of money on welfare programmes. In my view those were not welfare programmes instead freebies for luring the vote. Opposition is taking the corruption in their hand particularly 2G spectrum scam.

In Tamil Nadu, AIADMK and DMK are the two major parties. Each is having about 30% vote. One of the two party can pull about 5% more (about 35%) based on various factors. I believe anti incumbency and 2G spectrum scam will be advantage to AIADMK this time around. Last assembly election, free Television set tilted that advantage to DMK. I would not discount DMK yet as four months to election and trend could change. It is clear that, these two parties will be leading their respective alliance.

AIADMK already brought in CPI, CPI-M, MDMK and other small parties in their alliance. DMK currently has Congress and VC and I expect them to stay.

DMDK and Congress are two other major parties has some significance throught the state. DMDK already made stance against DMK. With this backdrop DMDK can join AIADMK camp or form a third front. Forming a third front will be sucidal unless it brings Congress onboard. Even with that, they cannot win the majority but can play spoiler role in splitting anti-DMK vote. Based on Vijay Kanth speech, this is unlikely. This will also discredit him in the future. He is likely to join AIADMK alliance and may be trying get maximum seats from them. My sources are confirming this.

Congress did not contest election (except in 1989) on their own in past three decades. During this period, its cadre base is eroding. It is party of more leaders and may have relatively stronger  presence in southern districts. If they go alone or put together its own alliance, it may be a repeat of Bihar in 2010. Considering DMK strength in paraliment, it is unlikely to break away from DMK. DMK support is more important in the backdrop of Andhra Pradesh crisis. Their were indications from local congress leaders that there may be breakaway from Congress to support AIADMK like 1996. I do not beieve that will happen. I do not expect smooth relation between their party cadres at local level though. Congress and DMK need each other in post election whether they win or not. Having said that, Congress will use its 2G scam to get more seats and cabinet positions if they win.

PMK is another force which could poll about 3% vote in northern Tamil Nadu. They were loosing their base because of frequent switching of side. They lost all the seats they contested in 2009 election. Karunanidhi said, they signalled PMK to join DMK. In return Ramadoss, PMK leader said he did not receive any signal. As per sources, they are keeping the channel open from both sides. It will be difficult to predict where they will be at the end. My gut feeling is, they will be with DMK or left out (which I prefer to teach them a lesson).

As expected, DMDK joins AIADMK alliance and barrning any unforseen event, I beieve they will win 150-170 seats. DMK alliance can win 40-60 seats. DMK alliance expected to project "Election Manifesto" as their hero and spend lot of money. DMK government started pushing their welfare programmes beyond the needy people to get the votes. We need to see whether it can be converted to vote at the end. Inspite of all this, there is anti-incumbency trend but can change as we near the election.