Monday, February 7, 2011

Is PMK abandoned?

Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is  (Vanniyar) caste based party from Tamil Nadu. Over decade they had the habit of switching side between AIADMK and DMK led fronts . They successfully negotiated more seats each time by switching sides. This increased seats helped them to show they have strong vote base contrary to eroding base particularly to DMDK.

In 2006 TN Assembly election, they won 18 seats by contesting 31 seats. In spite of strong campaign against DMDK president Vijaykanth, he won in PMK strong hold. In last parliamentary election, as usual they switched back to AIADMK front from DMK-Cong front and lost all the six constituency it contested in its strong hold. This is a major blow to PMK. The political pundits believed that DMK selectively targeted PMK to discredit them. Now in upcoming Tamil Nadu election, it wanted to contest with DMK. PMK sent his MLAs' and it leaders to meet Karunanidhi multiple times to seal the deal.

In Delhi, Karunanidhi wants to temper down Congress expectation. He announced PMK will contest with DMK front. Ramdoss wanted to get more seats in negotiation and said no decision was made yet and will be decided by General Council not expecting Congress reservation against PMK. During Meeting with Karunanidhi, Sonia was keen in keeping the PMK out of the alliance. DMK support did not received well by Sonia Gandhi. On return to Chennai, Karunanidhi said PMK chance of joining DMK is ruled out. This was shock to PMK.

PMK  was also kept the channel open with AIADMK to see whether it can get better deal. AIADMK is keen in bring Vijaykanth's DMDK into AIADMK front. For AIADMK, PMK is only fall back option. This was another shock to PMK Leader S.Ramdoss. He delegated his son to Delhi for a patch up with Congress. He could not meet Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi so far.

As expected Congrees goes with DMK front and DMDK goes with AIADMK front. He is pretty much stranded or go with other small parties. This is good omen for Tamil Nadu politics. If PMK can convince DMK and Congress to accept PMK in to UPA, he need to accept lesser number of seats.

The following are hypothetical scenario. Congress comes out DMK front (unlikely considering central situation), contest with DMDK. This will attract both DMK and AIADMK towards PMK. Another option, DMDK goes alone (Viajykanth indicated against this), PMK can get a good deal from AIADMK.

As of this writing, PMK is in limbo. I do not see more than single digit representation in new Tamil Nadu Assembly at the most (Likely ZERO if they go alone). I believe this is good for Tamil Nadu. May be fall of PMK (Dr. S. Ramadoss) opportunism starts now.

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