Surprising to many, alliance and seat sharing is not finalized yet. Usually AIADMK will swiftly move ahead which is still struggling. Here is the status
AIADMK block - AIADMK, MDMK, CPI, CPIM, PT, MNMK and other small parties
DMK block - DMK, Congress, PMK, VCK and other small parties.
The biggest wild card is DMDK. DMDK stance on DMK is very clear and DMK cannot give DMDK enough seats. This option is ruled out. The question is whether it will align with AIADMK or go alone in some form. There are contradicting statements on this. I still believe DMDK will contest with AIADMK. This is mutually beneficially and its clear from J.Jayalalithaa's unusual patience.Going alone is suicidal for DMDK.
It looks like AIADMK is not able to accommodate DMDK demands (at least that is the perception). Recently Vijaykanth brother-in-law (Sudeesh) visited Delhi and reportedly met Congress leaders. There are rumours that Congress is keeping the communication channel open with DMDK. The suggestions are Congress can go with DMDK dumping DMK. I do not believe this will happen for two reasons.
1. The Congress needs DMK's support in Central. Absence of DMK will weaken UPA possibly bring down the UPA Government.
2. M.Karunanidhi understands that breaking away with Cong will bring CBI to his door steps and will reflect in election.
There are arguments Congress will benefit from Vijaykanth and develop alternatives to DMK/AIADMK. May be they are thinking him like Chiranjeevi. Vijaykanth also benefit financially from this. It is interesting to note that Panruti S.Ramachandran has close association with Congress from MGR days. In my view, Congress is playing this to get more seats (possibly 60+ seats from DMK) and power sharing arrangement. In my view even if this happens, it will advantage for AIADMK block as they hold close to 40%. It will be miserable for DMK block. DMDK/Congress can do well in some congress strong holds.
My prognosis:
DMDK joining AIADMK - 75% chance
DMDK going alone - 15% (may be because of threat and money)
DMDK+Congress - 10%
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