AIADMK List and associated mishap

On Wednesday,  160 AIADMK candidates list was unilateraly released. The list was released even before the seat identification process is complete with its partners. Shockingly many of the constituencies figured in the AIADMK list were in the wish list by their partners. Some of them had their sitting MLAs. Even AIADMK candidates were allocated different constituencies than they requested.

For example, Gokul Indira was assigned Anna Nagar while she requested Thirupattur. The list also figured P.Valarmathi who is not in good books of AIADMK supremo in recent past. Dissolved Sasikala Peravai founder, P.Needhipathi got Usilampatti (As of Friday night, this seat was allotted to its partner AIMMK. a devar outfit.)

This alliance was put together by AIADMK supremo painfully over one year period. Some element within her residence/office attempted destroy everything in one press release. She is not stupid to release the complete list without finalizing with partners. If it was done for the auspicious day reason, she would have released few prominent names but not the complete list. I do believe this is happened without her approval.  There are several theories going around why and who did this. The bottom line is she should find out the group/individual and take action on them. Otherwise more trouble on the way.

On Friday, she called the leaders of AIADMK front over phone and spoke to them. This pacified them and seat identification process continued and in some cases it was finalized. After the identification is complete we can expect some change in the AIADMK final list. Hopefully the deserving candidates will get the nomination. This may mean the nomination goes to different individual than the one in the first list. She has ability to make this change and our hope is she does.

In 1990, her resignation was released (handed over to police and they released) by someone from her residence. As a follow up, Sasikala's husband was kicked out of her residence later citing him as reason. I hope some one pays the price for this mischievous behavior.

Tamil Nadu Election landscape

The long expected Jayalalitha-Vijaykanth meeting happened today (March 4th, 2011). At last DMDK decided to join AIADMK front and they got 41 seats in return. Now AIADMK needs to finalize the seat sharing with other partners like MDMK, CPI, CPIM.

On DMK side, Congress is giving enough heart burns to DMK. After three rounds of talks, no deal yet. Congress is trying to gain maximum out of 2G scam. On the DMK side, they are pressuring Congress by allocating to other partners such as PMK, VCK and others. There are whispers that partners may give up few seats in case there is a need. I still believe DMK will settle with Congress and go as single front. Both parties aware of this, particularly after AIADMK-DMDK confirmation.

In the past when a front which polls around 45% of votes returns to power with majority on its own. This elections is not going to be different. Based on the previous elections in 2006 and 2009, the ADMK front should poll closer to 48-52% range. In case of ADMK front crossing 50% threshold is going to be advantage to them.  The 2G scam should be an advantage to ADMK front as well. In this secnario AIADMK should win over 180 seats.

AIADMK - 33%
DMDK -    10%
CPI       -    1.5%
CPI(M) -    1.5%
MDMK -    3%
Others  -      2%
_______________________
Total - 51%

DMK    - 26.5%
Congrss - 8.5%
PMK -     5%
VCK  -    1.5%
Others -   1%
___________________
Total - 42.5%

BJP- 2%
Independents - 3%
Others - 1.5%

The wild card is money and power during the election. As one of my fellow Twittery pointed out, I could not imagine the consequence of DMK-PMK-VCK cadres occupying the polling booth in Northern districts. It is going to be challenge for Election Commission to conduct fair election.

Gap between DMK and Congress is widening and it will show up in the election as well. This is the status as on today and more than a month before election. There are bumpy raids ahead. BUCKLE UP !!!!!