Tamil Nadu Power Crisis - Analysis

Tamil Nadu is facing unannounced power cut (brown out) for past few years. This impacts industrial sector and public alike. There was no clear policy from DMK Government. There were allegations that kick backs were involved in purchase of power from private sector and hence Govt were neglecting its own power generation. The planned maintenance were not co-ordinated aggravating the problem. It wouldn't be unfair if we attribute this as failure for DMK's election loss.

The new CM, J. Jayalalithaa is taking some positive action. She promised to add 10,000MW generation capacity to the system over next 5 years. There are no clear indication whether it includes current projects. In my view it is in right direction but does not go far enough. I hope she and her Electricity Minister aggressively pursue this matter.

According to TN state government's policy document, the current capacity including its share from central pool is10,214 MW (this is excluding renewal energy sources as they are unpredictable in peak loads). The projected demand for 2011-12 is 14,224 MW and for 2012-13 is 15,517 MW. The current average deficit is 2500 MW. It is expected that demand will double in next 5 years based on the projected growth. I hope this explains why I am saying promised 10,000 MW generation is not enough. The Government should develop short term (up to 2 years), mid-term ( up to 10 Years) and long term (up to 30 years) policies. This is not just planning but involves huge investments are needed.


In the short term, Jayalalithaa's pursuit of asking 1000 MW of power for next one year make sense. She is expediting the projects such as the Vallur 500 MW capacity. She is also requesting the Central Government to expedite Neyveli and Koodangulam projects.However this is not under her control. Hence current deficit and projected deficits not likely to go away anytime in near future.Any new project ground breaking now will take couple of years before it is added to the Grid. This forces us to consider saving energy which is good thing in long-term as well. Here are somethings which will impact positively.

- According to policy document from TNEB, the transmission loss is 18%. Reducing it to 15%, to their target will save over 400 MW of power. Apart from bridging the gap, it helps bring down the cost.

- The Government should encourage public to use energy efficient lamps such as CFLs. It can even give couple of them free through PDS. Typically this saves 75% energy cost and produces 75% less heat.


- The Government buildings can adopt similar approach and can meet portion of its demand from Solar Energy generated in that location. Significantly reduces the transmission loss.


- State Government can enforce energy efficient products such as fans, AC, etc in steps. Sales tax can be higher for non compliant energy efficient products.


- Industries can be asked to reduce their usage by following the best practices such as using energy efficient products and meeting portion of their demand from solar energy produced in that location.


- Smart switches/meters can be installed in stages. This will allow the Government to charge premium rate for peak usage (may be restricted for business) and any excess energy generated can be sold back to Grid. This is win-win for both.


- Encourage public to use Solar energy for water heating and part of their needs such as lights, cooking, etc.


- Should enforce other conservative measures such as turning off the street lights on time, turning off unnecessary lights in Government building. This habits should be encouraged to public through proper ads.


- Unplugging electronics such as Mobile Phone adapters save money. Government should initiate ad campaign to achieve this.


- Government should aggressively enforce power theft prevention. This should include political rallies. (Spl. Thanks for ppl who reminded me on this)



The emphasis should be on Renewal energy generation closer to consumption location. The traditional energy resources such as coal, water, Gas, Diesel, etc are limited in natural resource. Depleting them is not a good idea. In a decade or so, we will be having hybrid/electrical cars driving the demand. Government needs to get prepared for it. This is just a sample on what can be done. Hopefully Government addresses these ones and come up with more ways to meet the demand.

DMK 2011 election Manifesto - discussion

The ICC world cup which was taking limelight for past month ended with Team India winning the world cup. The TN assembly elections which were at back burner for past week or so came back to lime light. Both DMK and AIADMK manifesto filled with freebies. I am not a believer and supporter of freebies. I view this as bribe to get votes. I would prefer to vote based on Good Governance and future wellness of the state in mind. We will review the DMK manifesto in this post.

DMK Manifesto is 66 pages in length. The pages 42-45 provides the highlights of their policies. The first 10 pages provides the back ground of DMK and other regular propaganda. The pages 46 through 66 is past achievements and Annexures. I focused on the highlights and referred to the appropriate pages for additional information.

Loans to women self groups: The loan amount to this group will be increased to 4 lakhs from  2.5 lakhs out of which 2 lakhs will be subsidy. Political parties figured out they can leverage these women in election time and secure their votes. . This will be 5000-10000 per women. This is socializing the corruption

Low rental housing scheme This another bad policy without addressing the fundamental problem. The real estate boom makes housing unaffordable. This growth is not sustainable. The Housing Board was created to address this problem and we need to see where we went wrong and correct it rather than creating a new problem.

One kilo of iodized salt every month through PDS: I am shocked to see this. Is this acceptance by government that inflation is so high and salt is not affordable? I am not a big fan of freebies and it is a bad policy.

Maternity leave will be increased from 3 months to 4 months:  I am not sure whether it is applicable to all employees or only for who work in Government. I think we should stay with 3 months and provide up to one year non-paid leave if the women choose to. This can be applied to every one working in Tamil Nadu.

 Free bus pass for senior citizens:   Government transport corporations are running in losses. The estimated loss is over 1000 crores and it is struggling to perform maintenance and buy diesel. This is going to add stress to the system. Rather public will be happy to pay for good service at reasonable price. I am positive this free pass will be limited to specific services by tricking people. Another Election gimmick?

Increase the income of people who are below poverty line to above poverty line: This is false promise in the back drop of freebies. Given the policy of the DMK government, this is absurd. The only way they can achieve this with current policy is distribution of DMK leaders wealth to the people who are below the poverty level.

Waive non-farm loans and their interest in stages : This is another bad policy. This will create a culture where people don't want to pay back the loans hoping that Government will come to their rescue. This also penalizes the good citizens who pay the loan back on time. This should be used only in extraordinary situation and it became common thing which is dangerous policy.

Extend the free electricty to coconut farm and horticulture crop: Framers will be happy to pay if they get the uninterrupted service and service for new request is processed in timely manner without expecting bribe.  This is one another bad policy.

Conversion of agricultural land to other purposes will be prevented without permission: We have enough laws to stop them. Inspite of it, this happens due to corruption and political influence. Adding new rule will facilitate corruption further. Is there any hidden agenda behind it as MK family accumulated so much land?

Continuously strive to alleviate Eelam problem:  DMK government already watched one of worst genocide happening in eelam. They haven't done anything to stop except writing letters and sending telegrams in spite of being part of the Central Government. This is nothing more than political statement.

Find a solution to stop atrocious usury (Kandhu vatti): The ADMK government passed the strong laws to stop this. There is no need for new law. It is matter of administering law and order. Also educating the public.

Kalaignar Housing Family Scheme subsidy increased: The subsidy of housing scheme will be increased from Rs 75000 to one lakh. Government could have achieved the similar things through TNHB (Tamil Nadu Hosuing Board) with some subsidy and loans. The current system forces people to come up with the balance money which will be difficult. Officials and DMK functionaries are milking the innocent poor to deliver the benefit which could have been avoided through TNHB by defining proper rules and eligibility criteria.

35 kilos of rise for poorest of poor: In the past five years we have seen smuggling of the rise to neighboring states and sold it in black market. It is failed policy and should not be extended. This will help smugglers and politicians.

Free Grinder or Mixer: This is hang over from last election. Free color TV promise during the last election put them into power. So DMK wanted to buy vote for Grinder or Mixer. ADMK also promised similar things to counter DMK. The bottom line is it's a bad policy and this money should be used for infrastructure & growth.

Benefit increase to the schemes:  The DMK promised to increase the old people pension, financial assistance to pregnant women and marriage assistance. These are the couple of things which make sense given the status of women in the society particularly in lower end of economic scale.

Conclusion: I read through the complete manifesto couple of times in search of any growth related policy. None is found. The promises in the manifesto are intended to create popularity and get back to power using cash/benefit for vote. Absolutely no policy towards growth of the state or uplifting of the common people. This will make sure all the revenue will be spent on the freebies and reckless policies. It will ensure Government will borrow money for each and every growth related project putting undue stress on treasury. We can assured that the TN debt will cross 2 Lakh crore in next five years and state will be in the brink of bankruptcy.

AIADMK List and associated mishap

On Wednesday,  160 AIADMK candidates list was unilateraly released. The list was released even before the seat identification process is complete with its partners. Shockingly many of the constituencies figured in the AIADMK list were in the wish list by their partners. Some of them had their sitting MLAs. Even AIADMK candidates were allocated different constituencies than they requested.

For example, Gokul Indira was assigned Anna Nagar while she requested Thirupattur. The list also figured P.Valarmathi who is not in good books of AIADMK supremo in recent past. Dissolved Sasikala Peravai founder, P.Needhipathi got Usilampatti (As of Friday night, this seat was allotted to its partner AIMMK. a devar outfit.)

This alliance was put together by AIADMK supremo painfully over one year period. Some element within her residence/office attempted destroy everything in one press release. She is not stupid to release the complete list without finalizing with partners. If it was done for the auspicious day reason, she would have released few prominent names but not the complete list. I do believe this is happened without her approval.  There are several theories going around why and who did this. The bottom line is she should find out the group/individual and take action on them. Otherwise more trouble on the way.

On Friday, she called the leaders of AIADMK front over phone and spoke to them. This pacified them and seat identification process continued and in some cases it was finalized. After the identification is complete we can expect some change in the AIADMK final list. Hopefully the deserving candidates will get the nomination. This may mean the nomination goes to different individual than the one in the first list. She has ability to make this change and our hope is she does.

In 1990, her resignation was released (handed over to police and they released) by someone from her residence. As a follow up, Sasikala's husband was kicked out of her residence later citing him as reason. I hope some one pays the price for this mischievous behavior.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election - Alliance Shaping

 Surprising to many, alliance and seat sharing is not finalized yet. Usually AIADMK will swiftly move ahead which is still struggling. Here is the status

AIADMK block - AIADMK,  MDMK, CPI, CPIM, PT,  MNMK and other small parties

DMK block - DMK, Congress, PMK, VCK and other small parties.

The biggest wild card is DMDK.  DMDK stance on DMK is very clear and DMK cannot give DMDK enough seats. This option is ruled out. The question is whether it will align with AIADMK or go alone in some form. There are contradicting statements on this. I still believe DMDK will contest with AIADMK. This is mutually beneficially and its clear from J.Jayalalithaa's  unusual patience.Going alone is suicidal for DMDK. 

It looks like AIADMK is not able to accommodate DMDK demands (at least that is the perception). Recently Vijaykanth brother-in-law (Sudeesh) visited Delhi and reportedly met Congress leaders. There are rumours that Congress is keeping the communication channel open with DMDK. The suggestions are Congress can go with DMDK dumping DMK. I do not believe this will happen for two reasons.

1. The Congress needs DMK's support in Central. Absence of DMK will weaken UPA possibly  bring down the UPA Government.

2. M.Karunanidhi understands that breaking away with Cong will bring CBI to his door steps and will reflect in election.

There are arguments Congress will benefit from Vijaykanth and develop alternatives to DMK/AIADMK. May be they are thinking him like Chiranjeevi.  Vijaykanth also benefit financially from this. It is interesting to note that Panruti S.Ramachandran has close association with Congress from MGR days. In my view, Congress is playing this to get more seats (possibly 60+ seats from DMK) and power sharing arrangement. In my view even if this happens, it will advantage for AIADMK block as they hold close to 40%. It will be miserable for DMK block. DMDK/Congress can do well in some congress strong holds.

My prognosis:

DMDK joining AIADMK - 75% chance

DMDK going alone - 15% (may be because of threat and money)

DMDK+Congress - 10%

Is PMK abandoned?

Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) is  (Vanniyar) caste based party from Tamil Nadu. Over decade they had the habit of switching side between AIADMK and DMK led fronts . They successfully negotiated more seats each time by switching sides. This increased seats helped them to show they have strong vote base contrary to eroding base particularly to DMDK.

In 2006 TN Assembly election, they won 18 seats by contesting 31 seats. In spite of strong campaign against DMDK president Vijaykanth, he won in PMK strong hold. In last parliamentary election, as usual they switched back to AIADMK front from DMK-Cong front and lost all the six constituency it contested in its strong hold. This is a major blow to PMK. The political pundits believed that DMK selectively targeted PMK to discredit them. Now in upcoming Tamil Nadu election, it wanted to contest with DMK. PMK sent his MLAs' and it leaders to meet Karunanidhi multiple times to seal the deal.

In Delhi, Karunanidhi wants to temper down Congress expectation. He announced PMK will contest with DMK front. Ramdoss wanted to get more seats in negotiation and said no decision was made yet and will be decided by General Council not expecting Congress reservation against PMK. During Meeting with Karunanidhi, Sonia was keen in keeping the PMK out of the alliance. DMK support did not received well by Sonia Gandhi. On return to Chennai, Karunanidhi said PMK chance of joining DMK is ruled out. This was shock to PMK.

PMK  was also kept the channel open with AIADMK to see whether it can get better deal. AIADMK is keen in bring Vijaykanth's DMDK into AIADMK front. For AIADMK, PMK is only fall back option. This was another shock to PMK Leader S.Ramdoss. He delegated his son to Delhi for a patch up with Congress. He could not meet Sonia Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi so far.

As expected Congrees goes with DMK front and DMDK goes with AIADMK front. He is pretty much stranded or go with other small parties. This is good omen for Tamil Nadu politics. If PMK can convince DMK and Congress to accept PMK in to UPA, he need to accept lesser number of seats.

The following are hypothetical scenario. Congress comes out DMK front (unlikely considering central situation), contest with DMDK. This will attract both DMK and AIADMK towards PMK. Another option, DMDK goes alone (Viajykanth indicated against this), PMK can get a good deal from AIADMK.

As of this writing, PMK is in limbo. I do not see more than single digit representation in new Tamil Nadu Assembly at the most (Likely ZERO if they go alone). I believe this is good for Tamil Nadu. May be fall of PMK (Dr. S. Ramadoss) opportunism starts now.

Why Karunanidhi (DMK) protect A.Raja?

The media speculated DMK to strip party positions from A.Raja. Instead DMK passed resolution praising and supporting A.Raja. Media started attributing this to Kanimozhi's support to A.Raja. I believe it goes much beyond that. I am sure Karunanidhi and his family does not want him to talk freely with CBI. This will be problem for them. He is not just close and trusted associate for Karunanidhi. He is much more than that and  helped them in many ways. Here are few key factors

1. Kalaignar TV was operational in 45 days. This was impossible without A.Raja particularly against Maran brothers. He was a Telecom minister and cleared all the paper work swiftly.

2. One of the 2G spectrum beneficiary SWAN is allegedly linked to Karunanidhi family particularly Kanmozhi and her Mom.

3. A.Raja was Environment Minister before he moved to Telecom Ministry. Every big project needs ministry approval. This is considered cash cow portfolio. If it is investigated more scams should come out. He was key figure in blocking any critical project from previous AIADMK Government such as desalination plant. Current DMK Government completed the same project. This is apart from money making machine and profit sharing.

4. CBI suspects 2G spectrum funds might have been invested in spiceJet through Maran.

5. It is also suspected Kalaignar TV might have funded by 2G Spectrum money.

6. CBI suspects Tamil Mayyam involved in this scam. Kanimozhi is one of the Board of Directors. CBI raided their premises.

CBI could offer him to talk about beneficiaries in return he can get reduced conviction and his family members can be spared. This is common practice by investigating agency across the world including India. These could be crucial in DMK backing in spite of additional baggage during upcoming assembly election. Stay tuned for updates!!

TN Assembly - Opinion Poll

Loyola College conducts opinion poll around election time and publishes the result along with their analysis.  DMK Government using Police Intelligence Chief  M.S. Jaffar Sait to pressure Loyola College not to release the data. This news was reported by http://www.savukku.net/ .

The Tamil version of the website has this information and summary is provided below.

Center of Public Studies, Loyola College conducts opinion polls on various issues. In similar fashion, they conducted opinion poll related to Tamil Nadu Assembly Election in November 2011. It determined the AIADMK alliance will win the majority. DMK Government and Intelligence Department pressured Loyola College not to release the results then. Loyola College did not release.

Recently they conducted the similar opinion poll. The results indicate that AIADMK alliance will win 181-185 seats and DMK alliance will win 51-55 seats. They are again putting pressure not to release the results. This time Loyola College determined to release the data. If not the website assures they will find a way to publish the results.

DMK - Internal Family Politics Update II

DMK first family tried to force Rajathi Ammal and Kanimozhi out of political arena. Alagiri took the lead as usual but in my view he was doing it for his own hidden agenda. Karunanidhi understood this and supported Kanimozhi and her Sangam festival in open. This put the first family in defence. I am sure compromise is reached after that. Otherwise he wouldn't have met MK.  Alagiri is going to get what he wanted. This become obvious Alagiri met Karunanidhi in Gopalapuram and his interview after that. In the recent interview (after meeting Karunanidhi) he mentioned he will not ask for power and he will take it if it's given to him.

DMK general council is meeting on 3rd February. I expect Alagiri to get party post equal to Stalin. I expect him to be appointed as Deputy General Secretary (Stalin holds this title now) or Deputy President or Treasurer. He will also going to get more seats for his followers. I am sure Stalin is not going to like this. Now Maran brothers are trying to neutral between Stalin and Alagiri. It will interesting to watch them as they can tilt the balance.

As long as Karunanidhi is alive, Kanimozhi will be taken care. I do not believe Kanimozhi or Rajathi are a match to Stalin/Alagiri/Maran brothers combo. Eventually they will be out of DMK if not politics.

Dr. Manmohan Singh - Should he go?

I admire Dr. Manmohan Singh for his work as an Economist and Finance Minister. His policies during 1991-96 put us in the path of growth which we are benefiting for past decade or so. In my view he failed miserably as a Prime Minister. The difference is he was reporting to P.V. Narasimha Rao then and Sonia Gandhi now. Can we attribute his failure to his boss? I believe so. He was given enough freedom to fix the economy and which was his strength. Now he does not have that freedom and in that case he should step down.

The following things shows how he is compromised his integrity for the power. This is not a complete list of his failure anyway.

1. Nira Radia tapes revealed how UPA-2 cabinet was decided. It was big corporates, power brokers, media personnel, etc except the Prime Minister. As per consititution he has full authority for deciding the cabinet but we know what happened.

2. There was clear indication that things were wrong in 2G selling process. He himself indicated auction process should be followed. Law Ministry and TRAI recommended the same. In response to Prime Minister's letter, A.Raja responds (with the help of then Solicitor General) to Prime Minister, he was going ahead with his approach. Prime Minister ackonwledged his letter without any comment. Who forced him to stay away from this?  Why A.Raja was allowed to stay in Cabinet even after his officess were raided. Even after all this Raja was given clean chit by PM. why?

3. During the 2009 election, he promised to bring back the black money from foreign banks in 100 days. Now it is over 18 months from dead line. Nothing much happened. Contrary to his statement, they are protecting the names which they received from German Government using some IT rules. These individuals and Companies are not just tax evaders. They are criminals and parked their illegal money in those accounts. They must be exposed. Why he is hesitating?

4. His handling of Bofors is miserable. ITAT says there is enough evidence to prove that commissions were paid. CBI contradicts saying there is not enough proof. They are under PMO and he is responsible. Why he is supporting the coverup?

His job is not just to give pose with foriegn leaders. He is obligated to serve the nation and not just Sonia Gandhi family. He failed in these obligations and time for him to go. He must resign, otherwise he and his party must be voted out.

Nepotism in Indian politics

Founding fathers and our freedom fighters sacrificed so many things including their life and wealth to achieve the freedom we enjoy. It is slowly slipping out of our  hands. Corruption is every where. In my view Corruption and Nepotism are related.. Recently Nepotism reaching to a level where our democracy become mockery. Every politicians wants to bring in their kids into politics to protect their interest (meaning assets acquired illegally). It is become accepted phenomenon. It was started slowly when Nehru brought Indira Gandhi into lime light. I would not be surprised in the future over 75% of elected members of our Government are nepotist. It must stop. Otherwise we cannot control the corruption and looting.

I thought of covering  from Nehru Family at national level, YSR family in Andhra Pradesh, Pawar family in Maharashtra, Karunanidhi family in Tamil and list will go on.  We were waiting for leaders to come and fix our political systems. I think we lost our core value by copying the British system. We must revist our old democratic system put together by Chola Kings. We should incorporate the relevant ones in our constitution. That may be a challenge but not impossible.

During my research I stumbled upon this video. The video below gives a sample from one family (Sonia Gandhi) and how they control the puppet PM from behind and their cronies. It talks volume and it is worth watching.

Free Color TV - Receipients

 The electronic waste cannot be thrown out in garbage particularly television sets without proper care. This  could contaminate the environment and hazardous for individuals handling it (particularly if it is not properly handled). I was searching google on recycling television sets. I landed here.

The following paragraph in the article captured my eyes.

"By December, the DMK government in Tamil Nadu hopes that around 1.63 crore households would have received free colour TV sets, implying that more than six crore people would have benefited. This is nearly 90% of state's projected population of 6.8 crore". This costed exchequer Rs 4000 crore.

Typical life of the television set is 7-10 years. It will take at least Rs500/- (this is very conservative estimate and it costs over Rs 1500 in wester countries) to recycle each television set properly. This will cost Rs. 815 crores to recycle those television sets. Who is going to pay for this? Government or pubic? If it is not handled properly, we are waiting for huge environmental disaster in Tamil Nadu. The cost will be double if you consider the privately purchased TVs.

Over 70% of the cases, the Government distributed color Television is second TV to the family. The Times of India article highlights this. As per original plan, it was meant for people who did not have color TV. In reality, I have seen people who are Engineers in Government, Teachers (both Husband and wife work, kids are working in IT), Bankers who fall under upper middle class are receiving these freebies (BTW, they all have larger Color TVs or LCDs).

This money could have better spent if it was invested in power generation making electricity accessible to more people for more time, distributing energy efficient lamps which could alleviate demand, provide better education for kids, clean water, etc. It is sad to see Government spending money inefficient way to cause another environmental disaster.

Wake up Tamil Nadu. Otherwise your kids and/or grand kids will pay for this in terms of their health.

Fisherman killing - Government inaction

India wants to be a developed nation and one of the super power by 2020. It is excellent ambition and every Indians should work towards it. It should be recognized, we are growing our economy which will help us to get there but not without any risks. Indians should recognize we cannot achieve leadership position just with the help of economy. We should develop our diplomatic influence and power. Unfortunately we are lacking in that.

We are having border issues with China such as giving stapled Chinese visas for Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh residents. Recent Chinese incursion into Kashmir played down by our military and Government. I am not suggesting we should go for a war but we need to make our position clear. If needed, we should issue similar visas to Tibetans for the same reason. We need not say about Pakistan. Sri Lanka is being added to this list.

It became very common for Sri Lankan Navy to shoot at Indian fishermen particularly Tamil fisherman. They arrest and torture them for months before deporting them. Indian Government has responsibility to protect its citizens. Our Ministers both in Central and State made comments such that putting onus on the fishermen (One such comment was fishermen entering Sri Lankan waters to catch large amount of fish and paying their price). These fishermen are not sophesticated carrying high tech gadgets to know the borders. It is International law that these fishermen should be treated with dignity and returned to their mother land. Instead they shoot at fisherman for threating eventually killing some. They used LTTE name (In my view LTTE should go but Tamil interest must be protected) in the past for this. We cannot accept those excuses anymore. It must be firmly dealt with.

It is widely known that we provided arms and funds to eliminate LTTE. Later we promised crores of rupees for Tamil Rehabilitation. No progress so far. Sri Lankan Governments is not keeping its promises on rehabiltation. China and Pakistan now has larger interest in Sri Lanka which  is not good for India. It is time for India to use its diplomatic power to achieve our goals. Indian Government should make it clear that it is not acceptable to kill or torture Indian citizens. We need to protect the fishermen livelihood by providing proper protection through our coast guard and navy. This is mechanism used by China in South China sea and other developed nations elsewhere.

Tamil Leader Karunanidhi sent a telegram to PM for his intervention. In his world, this is very urgent otherwise he would have written a letter. In this electronic world, email and Fax is much faster. I hope some one around him will explain about these technology (He has foremer IT/Communications minister around him for that). For Karunanidhi, this is not as imporatnt as getting a Cabinet position or threat to his family bussiness empire. In that case he would have deputed DMK ministers or leaders to meet Sonia Gandhi or Dr. Manmohan Singh.

Jayalalitha should not stop just issuing a statement. She should fight for people rights. I do not believe retaking "Katcha Theevu" is the solution. Rather we should come up with safe zone for fishermen. In cases they sail out of the zone, we should have proper mechanism to deal with this.  It is time to unite (across political spectrum) and protect our interest.

Kapil Sibal statement on 2G spectrum

Kapil Sibal issued a statement today saying CAG Rs 1.76 lakh Crore figure is erroneous and went on to say there is no loss to exchequer. This clearly shows Congress intention to coverup. In my view, Mr. Sibal owes answers to the Citizens for the following questions.

1. Why Raja changed "first come first served" to "first payed first served"?
2. Why Raja overruled PMs advice? SC made some adverse comments against Raja on this.
3. How come the letter pad companies got the licenses and are able to sell it for huge profit in few months? How come those companies able to get the necessary documents/DD ready while others scrambled? Dr. Subramaniyam Swamy presented compelling case/documents against those companies and their political ties.
4. When there is nothing wrong, why CBI raided Telecom Ministry?
5. Why Delhi HC observed that it sees prima facie in Dr. Swamy's case against Raja?
6. Pranabh Mukerjee mentioned that BJP also used similar process and presented some large number as loss during BJP period as well. Why this contradiction between two senior ministers? One of you must be wrong at the least. Can you or Finance Minister apolgize for providing wrong information to the public?
7. Why SC did not believe in the Central Government and wanted to monitor the CBI investigation? If there is no loss why Government and CBI agreed for investigation?
8. Why Mr. Thomas is appointed as CVC overruling Opposition leader concerns?
9. Why Mr.Thomas is continuing as CVC even after the SC adverse comments on his appoinment?
10. Why Congress is hesitant on appointing JPC if there is nothing to hide? Why would Pranab Mukerjhee counsel against PM's offer to appear before PAC?

There may be a dispute on how the final figure is arrived. However it is very clear that there is a loss to exchquer and individuals benefited from the transaction. It is sad to see educated and intellectuals like Mr. Sibal trying to cover up Himalayan Scandal. I am afraid that next time, Government will pick their cronies for CAG as they did in case of CVC. They learned from Bofors how to stop additional investigation and coverup things. That is being used now. Probably this learning will be useful in sometime in the future.

DMK - Internal Family Politics Update

Tamil Nadu is gearing towards assembly election in less that five months. DMK looked stronger until Parliament was  stalled by 2G spectrum scandal and A.Raja was forced to resign. This along with Nira Radia tapes brought the simmering family feud to open. End of December,  I blogged about how the Karunanidhi's first family was teaming up against Kanimozhi. It was proved to be accurate from recent Media reports.

M.K Alagiri eldest son of M.Karunanidhi and Dayalu Ammal reportedly submitted his resignation as Organization Secretary of DMK and from Union Cabinet to MK. It is also reported that the following conditions should be met to withdraw his resignation.

1. A. Raja should be suspended from DMK
2. Kanimozhi should be kept out of Politics and DMK
3. Sangamam organized by Tamil Mayyam (raided by CBI and Kanimozhi is one of the director) and funded by State Government should be stopped.

Alagiri and Stalin do not want to carry the extra baggage through Assembly election. It was obvious from the meetings organized by DMK in support of Raja. Brothers do not support this and asked their men to stay away. Karunanidhi on the contrary don't want to accept the fact and possibly by pressure from Kanimozhi and Rajathi.

Kanimozhi is not significant figure within DMK. The intention (by Alagiri) may be to remove Kanimozhi from their equation and gain more political power in the state for himself. He was sent to Center by Karunanidhi to keep him away from state politics which was reserved for his younger brother M.K.Stalin. It was clear he was not comfortable in Delhi due to his lack of knowledge in English and Hindi. It is natural to go back where he is comfortable meaning returning to state politics.

Alagiri returning to state politics is not straight forward. His brother Stalin is not going to be happy since he is currently Deputy CM and Deputy Secretary of the DMK.  Alagiri's return will weaken Stalin's position within the party. Alagiri may be doing this to gain more seats for his men in up coming assembly election and to get powerful post within the party. He boycotted the DMK working committee meeting which confirmed the media reports.

Karunanidhi is not yielded to his pressure yet. He made it clear by saying,  Kanimozhi's service is needed. The game is not over yet. It is expected Dayalu will mediate between Alagiri and Stalin. If that works out he will get considerable seats for his men and party posts like Deputy President of DMK. If the deal is not ironed out, we will see statement from Karunanidhi saying he is going to retire from politics after this term. This will put Alagiri in tough situation. Alagiri may not want to loose his current clout and Karunanidhi's statement will force him to accept the deal.

In DMK, party leadership is powerful. This will help his men to get the plum post both in party as well as in the Government. It will also enable him to control DMK trusts as a trustee. On top of that, he do not want to get kicked out of party and loose control within party as in the earlier election. It is more of tactics to get what he wants and Karunanidhi understands that.

It may be interesting to see who Maran brother's going to support. They burned their fingers earlier by publishing the poll results. May be they wait out on this one. Next few months will be interesting to watch DMK and MK family.

Dharmapuri and Madurai - two different outcomes

These are two similar incidences and two different outcomes. The clue is in the title. I am talking about burning of three students alive in Dharmapuri after J.Jayalalitha was convicted in Pleasant Stay Hotel case by special court in 2000. The next one is three employees of Dinakaran (Tamil Daily owned by Maran brothers) at Madurai office after publishing the poll result (which one of M. Karunanidhi kid is popular).

In the first case, AIADMK men from Dharmapuri district burned down the Agriculture University bus killing three students. This is in reaction to J.Jayalalitha's conviction in Pleasant Stay Hotel case (later it was over turned). This is violent attack on innocent people. The culprits must be punished and there cannot be different view on this. The CB-CID enquired this and prosecuted the culprits (Jayalalitha wanted CBI investigation which never happened). The Salem court sentenced death penalty for 3 people, seven years of rigorous imprisonment for 25 individuals and two were acquitted. It was disappointing that it took 10 years to get the culprit punished. There were lot of hurdles thrown on the way. However Supreme Court confirmed the sentencing and victims Families can have some relief at last. This is typical in Indian court system particularly in cases involving politicians. Justice delayed is Justice denied.

In the second case, DMK family feud turned violent. Dinankaran published poll results showing M.K.Stalin has larger support than his elder brother (M.K.Alagiri) and step sister Kanimozhi. This was published due to internal family politics inspite of M.Karunanidhi's opposition (He confirmed it). This sparked violence in Madurai and Alagiri's supporters violently attacked Dinakaran's office killing three employees. Kalanidhi Maran vowed culprits will be brought to justice. Dayanidhi Maran forced resign as cabinet minister from Central as aftermath. Tamil Nadu Government headed by Karunanidhi ordered CBI enquiry. CBI prosecuted Alagiri's supporters. During that period Karunanidhi's first family patched up the differences and called truce. Dinakaran backed off and eyewitnesses turned hostile. All the accussed were acquitted. It is important to note that Sun Network had video tapes showing the culprits in both the cases.

Kalanidhi Maran who promised his employees that he will bring the culprits to justice whoever it may be. Sun Network (also owned by Maran) directly accused Alagiri's involvement. The family patch work conviniently erased them from his memory. Where is the justice for the victim and their family? This also shows how CBI can be politically manipulated.

Justice system is very important pillar of our constitution. Weakened justice system may end up in lawless country. It is time to find out what we are doing wrong and fix them.

Law of the land should prevail. Justice must be served without any discrimination.

Indian Politicians - Justice bought or delivered?

I hardly know any Indian politician convicted on corruption charges. We have seen that in cases like Bofors, Fodder Scam, Pleasant Stay Hotel, Cremation Shed Scam, dhoti scam, etc. and various disproportionate wealth accumulation cases. It is unblievable that most of the cases politicians were acquitted (at the most censured). It is true across the political spectrum. The reason could be either the case is politicaly motivated or weakened by the people who are in power. As I mentioned earlier, this pattern fits across the political spectrum. I am trying to highlight the few to show the pattern but no means a complete list.

Bofors: This is one of the largest scam before 2G spectrum. It costed Rajiv Gandhi's job. JPC was setup and it did not go far enough. Later Media exposed the links between Rajiv Gandhi's family and brokers. CBI started its work late, filed the FIR, frozen the assets and tried to extradict Quattrocchi. During the process many of the accussed died. Congress came back to power, during UPA-1 it slowly dismantled the case systematically. Released Quattrocchi's assets. Yesterday ITAT determines there were kick backs. Government is in limbo and cannot recover the money now. Who is going to take responsibility? It is important to note that Quattrocchi is close to Sonia Gandhi defacto PM.

Cremation Shed Scam: T.M.Selvaganapathy DMK MP and former AIADMK minsiter and others involved in this case were acquitted. He joined DMK in August 2008 and he was acquitted in lower court in Jan 2009. In Jan 2010, he and others involved in this case were acquitted by CBI court in Madurai. Remember this is 15 year old case.

Dhoti Scam:  This was considered by lawyers one of the strong cases against AIADMK ministers. Former AIADMK minister Indira Kumari joined DMK in 2006. She also was acquitted from this case in October 2006.

The list goes on.  The following are the some of the former AIADMK ministers who are with DMK (some of them joined back AIADMK after their acquittal). It is important to point out DMK brought the cases against these people when they were in opposition and got them acquitted after they joined DMK.

1. Sedapatti Muthiah:Speaker. Property acquisition case.  (He was force to resign from Vajpayee Cabinet because of this. He abstained from no confident motion vote against the party whip. He was sidelined in the party after that)

2.  S. Kannappan: Minister for public works and electricity. Rs 117-cr coal import case. (He floated his own party after quitting AIADMK. Later joined DMK and elected to Tamil Nadu assembly through DMK ticket. In 2009, just before Parliamant election he joined back AIADMK)

3. S. Muthuswamy: Minister for health. Property acquisition case and fraud in giving the nod to set up 261 private paramedical institutions  (He is currently in DMK however he was acquitted from those case before he joined DMK)

4. K.P. Krishnan: Agriculture minister. Land acquisition, contractor scam.  (He floated his own party and allied with DMK. Later he joined DMDK and recently joined back AIADMK)

5. V. Sathyamurthy: Commercial tax minister. Placing orders with nonexistent industrial cooperative societies for supply of steel doors under Indira Awaas Yojna Scheme. (He joined DMK in Feb 2010)

6.  R. Indira Kumari: Social welfare minister. Rs 100-crore scam in the distribution of footwear and clothes to schoolchildren. (She joined DMK in Oct 2006)

Other former AIADMK figures like Anitha Radhakrishnan (CBCID was enquiring about disproportionate asset case when he joined DMK), Jyothi and others joined DMK for various reasons but certainly not based on ideology. This could mean only one of the two things.

1. The casees were brought based on ploitical vendetta with no merits.
2. Government did not fight well to prove the allegations which has merits.


In either case, Government has some explanation to do. We haven't heard any comment from TN CM and Opposition don't want to talk since the accused switched party.

I let you decide whether justice is bought or delivered based on the above facts.

One thing is for sure. Our politicians claim against fighting corruption is not credible. Particularly AIADMK, DMK, Congress and BJP do not have moral authority. In fact corruption become epidemic. The people in power get this infection quickly and letting them stay longer does not help. It is high time for citizens to vote based on their consicous and policies. It may mean selecting  lesser of an evil.

Corruption - Congress true color

Today, Pranabh Mukerjee said "PM made his offer on his own" and he would have advised against it if he was consulted. This is in response to Prime Minister's offer to appear before Parliament's Public Accounts Committee (PAC). This signals the mood of Congress inner circle to Sonia. Congress wants to put this to rest after discussing in Parliament. They can steer  Parilmant discussion with the rules to their advantage and close the chapter.

Congress does not want JPC or Supreme Court involvement in this case even though it is Himalayan Scandal. They want CBI, ED and IT to do the investigation. These entities are controlled by PMO and Finance Ministry which can be manipulated and close the case in their favor. Congress does not want any of its ministers to appear before PAC and it was clear from Pranab's statement. This vindicates opposition argument why JPC is needed. They installed their CVC (Mr. Thomas) and he is sticking to its post even after SC questioned its appointment in the back drop of pending corruption case against him. This is the pathetic state of the country.

This raises serious questions why Congress hesitant in appointing JPC. They might have benefited as accused by Dr. Subramanya Swamy. They do not want the truth to come out. Some people may question the JPC's effectiveness considering its political backdrop. I am confident it will have better independence than CBI/ED/IT. JPC's power will bring things out which will help public to make their own mind on this. We have seen that in Bofors case. The Hindu confirmed that JPC documents in Bofors case helped in their own ivestigation. Congress may not want to take any chances based on their past experience. We know CBI's role in Bofors and  in releasing the frozen funds to Ottavio Quattrocchi (Sonia Gandhi's friend).

There are news claiming that UPA is coming up with new law to fight corruption. This is nothing more than deflecting the critism. In June 2009, Dr. Manmohan Singh announced that they will bring back all the illeagal assets from Swiss Bank in 100 days. We know what happened so far? In my view Congress is not credible on this issue. Public expectation is to cancel  2G spectrum allotment and reauction it. We already started seeing weakening of the case by fining the telecoms with smaller amount.

Sonia's call to fight corruption is to deflect oppsitions call for JPC not to fight corruption. (We need understand her own credibility is at stake). My request to opposition leaders is "STICK TO YOUR JPC STAND". It is opposition parties responsibility to bring the truth out on this.

"Make his 15% while doing some national service"

Nira Radia tapes are huge embarrassment to Congress, DMK, Tata, Barka Dutt, Vir Sangvi and others. Most of us focused on 2G spectrum, Raja and Kanimozhi. However there are conversation in those tapes which indicates congress, their ministers working style and corruption.

In one of the taped conversation between Nira and Tarun Das (Head of CII) is shocking. In that Tarun Das saying he has suggested Kamal Nath for Surface Transport Ministry. He is giving the reasoning as Kamal Nath is a doer and can “make his 15 per cent” while doing some national service. Nira Radia responds back saying, "It is still ATM (Automatic Teller Machine". The outlay for Surface Transport is over Rs1200 crores.The 15% commission works out to Rs180 crores per year.  Now we know why parties want specific portfolio for national service. Think about Sethu Project and its current status. Hey Ram save the nation!!!

You can see the transcript and audio here.

BTW, Kamal Nath is indicted by Nanavati Commission. You can read about him in Wikipedia.

Karunanidhi's First family teams up against Kanimozhi

Dayanidhi Maran shared dais with M.K.Alagiri in Madurai. Maran touched Alagiri's feet when he came to dais before delivering the speech. This happened during inauguration of 100 Crore Textile park near Madurai. Maran and Alagiri were on opposite camps in the past. In the past Alagiri and Kanimozhi were considered closer. It was believed Alagiri supported Kanimozhi's candidacy for Rajya Sabha.

Tamil Daily owned by Maran brothers published a poll results which triggered violence in Madurai. Three Sun network employees were killed.This costed Dayanidhi cabinet job in UPA-1. In the end, case against Alagiri's supporters were weakened by family patch work. It was believed M.K.Stalin, Selvi and Maran brothers were in one camp. M.K.Alagiri and Kanimozhi on the other. This was out of necessity more than anything else.

Nira Radia tapes, 2G spectrum scandal and alleged involvement by Kanimozhi, Voltas land deal are tarnishing DMK image. Raja considered close to Kanimozhi. This realigns the internal politics within DMK. Now Karunanidhi/Dayalu kids (Alagiri, Stalin, Selvi) and Maran brothers wants to cut the loss by suspending A.Raja from the party. They also want Kanimozhi out of politics. Kanimozhi avoided Alagiri in the airport but spoke to Subramania Sway who filed the case in SC against Raja.

Time will tell how Karunanidhi is going to manage this round of family feud.

2G Spectrum Vs Telangana

Sri Krishna Committee submitting its report in two days. I believe Congress may play this politically. They could divert the focus from Spectrum to Telangana. Congress will consider the following as well.

1. Stop bleeding in AP after Jagan's departure
2. May be to offset the loss of Jagan by TRS. Note that TRS openly announced it can join Congress if Telangana dream comes true.
3. Whether to break alliance with DMK to cut losses on Spectrum
4. How to politically take advantage of Chiranjeevi and discredit Chandrababu Naidu.

Here is my expectation at this point. We will know how it plays out in coming weeks.

Congress will announce splitting of Andhra Pradesh into Andhra and Telangana. This will allow TRS to join Congress and strengthen Congress in Telangana. This will weaken considerably Jagan and Naidu in that region. They will join hands with Chiranjeevi that could provide additional strength in Andhra. There may be demonstration and violence in AP which will put 2G spectrum in the back burner. The drift in BJP on JPC will help them as well.

During this process they will either distance themselves from DMK if they decide to break the alliance. The DMK is considerably weakened now. Alternatively, Raja can be thrown under the bus, both DMK and Congress distance themselves from A. Raja. In the second situation it will scuttle AIADMK arguments. Suspending A.Raja from DMK will reveal who is winning political struggle within DMK family.

We know Raja knows lot more than what DMK family and Sonia wants him to know. If they suspend him, it may be pre-negotiated deal. They do not want him to talk during the election time.

I am pretty confident Telangana will put 2G spectrum in back burner no matter what happens in Tamil Nadu. This will also weaken opposition and hence the push towards JPC.