The long expected Jayalalitha-Vijaykanth meeting happened today (March 4th, 2011). At last DMDK decided to join AIADMK front and they got 41 seats in return. Now AIADMK needs to finalize the seat sharing with other partners like MDMK, CPI, CPIM.
On DMK side, Congress is giving enough heart burns to DMK. After three rounds of talks, no deal yet. Congress is trying to gain maximum out of 2G scam. On the DMK side, they are pressuring Congress by allocating to other partners such as PMK, VCK and others. There are whispers that partners may give up few seats in case there is a need. I still believe DMK will settle with Congress and go as single front. Both parties aware of this, particularly after AIADMK-DMDK confirmation.
In the past when a front which polls around 45% of votes returns to power with majority on its own. This elections is not going to be different. Based on the previous elections in 2006 and 2009, the ADMK front should poll closer to 48-52% range. In case of ADMK front crossing 50% threshold is going to be advantage to them. The 2G scam should be an advantage to ADMK front as well. In this secnario AIADMK should win over 180 seats.
AIADMK - 33%
DMDK - 10%
CPI - 1.5%
CPI(M) - 1.5%
MDMK - 3%
Others - 2%
_______________________
Total - 51%
DMK - 26.5%
Congrss - 8.5%
PMK - 5%
VCK - 1.5%
Others - 1%
___________________
Total - 42.5%
BJP- 2%
Independents - 3%
Others - 1.5%
The wild card is money and power during the election. As one of my fellow Twittery pointed out, I could not imagine the consequence of DMK-PMK-VCK cadres occupying the polling booth in Northern districts. It is going to be challenge for Election Commission to conduct fair election.
Gap between DMK and Congress is widening and it will show up in the election as well. This is the status as on today and more than a month before election. There are bumpy raids ahead. BUCKLE UP !!!!!
On DMK side, Congress is giving enough heart burns to DMK. After three rounds of talks, no deal yet. Congress is trying to gain maximum out of 2G scam. On the DMK side, they are pressuring Congress by allocating to other partners such as PMK, VCK and others. There are whispers that partners may give up few seats in case there is a need. I still believe DMK will settle with Congress and go as single front. Both parties aware of this, particularly after AIADMK-DMDK confirmation.
In the past when a front which polls around 45% of votes returns to power with majority on its own. This elections is not going to be different. Based on the previous elections in 2006 and 2009, the ADMK front should poll closer to 48-52% range. In case of ADMK front crossing 50% threshold is going to be advantage to them. The 2G scam should be an advantage to ADMK front as well. In this secnario AIADMK should win over 180 seats.
AIADMK - 33%
DMDK - 10%
CPI - 1.5%
CPI(M) - 1.5%
MDMK - 3%
Others - 2%
_______________________
Total - 51%
DMK - 26.5%
Congrss - 8.5%
PMK - 5%
VCK - 1.5%
Others - 1%
___________________
Total - 42.5%
BJP- 2%
Independents - 3%
Others - 1.5%
The wild card is money and power during the election. As one of my fellow Twittery pointed out, I could not imagine the consequence of DMK-PMK-VCK cadres occupying the polling booth in Northern districts. It is going to be challenge for Election Commission to conduct fair election.
Gap between DMK and Congress is widening and it will show up in the election as well. This is the status as on today and more than a month before election. There are bumpy raids ahead. BUCKLE UP !!!!!
The true results would only be known when election commission is strict,electronic machines in good shape and cash voters are controlled.
ReplyDeleteYou are correct. I expect with such a high media coverage, I expect reasonably fair. I do not know how we address EVM manipulations.
ReplyDeleteit very correct
ReplyDeleterangan
Didn't you realise that there is a mistake in this calculation
ReplyDelete